The Projection Bias
Hi,
This week’s email is about a common bias that messes up our predictions for what we’ll be like in the future.
Here are the key practical points you should know (mainly from my article):
The projection bias is the tendency to overestimate how much our future attributes (like beliefs, preferences, and abilities) will resemble our current ones.
For example, this bias can cause us to be too pessimistic about our ability to get work done later if we're currently tired, or too optimistic if we're currently well-rested.
Although we generally understand the (qualitative) direction in which our attributes will change, we systematically underestimate the (quantitative) magnitude of this change.
We tend to give too much weight to the anchor of our current attributes, and fail to properly account for factors that could change them over time, like maturation, social influence, and mood fluctuations.
To reduce the projection bias, plan for specific situations where it's likely to occur, watch out for common projection traps (like underestimating the influence of visceral factors, such as tiredness and hunger), and take time to cool off before major decisions.
Even when you can’t reduce this bias directly, it’s still worth accounting for it, so you can better understand and predict people’s behavior, including your own.
To put this into practice, try to find one area in life where you’re probably displaying this bias. Then, try to find one thing you can do to avoid it next time.
As always, I'm happy to hear your thoughts.
Have a great week,
Itamar